Trump's 3,700 Trades Light Up Wall Street's Conflict Alarms
President Trump disclosed more than 3,700 trades during the first quarter, with transactions valued between $220m and $750m across companies including Nvidia, Oracle, Microsoft and Boeing. Several purchases lined up neatly with policy moves that followed: at least $1m of Nvidia bought on January 6, days before chip exports to China were approved; Oracle stock bought a week before its TikTok stake was finalised; Boeing bought before a China jet order was announced. The White House denies any conflict of interest, and the 2012 STOCK Act does not cover the president. Enforcement capacity has thinned in parallel - DOJ headcount is down 4,000, SEC enforcement actions have fallen 30% this year, and CFTC actions are off 80%.
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US Inflation Hits 3-Year High as Real Wages Slip
US consumer prices rose 3.8% in April from a year earlier, the highest reading in three years, with wage growth failing to keep pace with inflation for the first time since 2022. Producer prices climbed 6% year-over-year, the steepest jump since 2022, signalling more pressure to come down the supply chain. Energy drove roughly 40% of the monthly increase, with gasoline above $4.50 nationwide and over $6 in California amid the ongoing conflict with Iran. Odds of a US rate cut in 2026 have collapsed, with prediction markets now pricing the chance of a hike at 32%, up from under 10% at the start of the year.
US Inflation Hits 3-Year High as Energy Costs Bite
US inflation jumped 3.8% year-over-year in April, the hottest reading in three years and above forecasts. Energy drove 40% of the monthly rise and was up 18% from a year earlier, reflecting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the war with Iran. Core inflation climbed 2.8%, and real wages turned negative for the first time in three years. Oil is up roughly 70% since the war began, a move associated with US stocks trading around 5 percentage points below where they would otherwise sit.
GameStop's $56bn Swing at eBay Unravels Within Hours
GameStop has offered $56bn to acquire eBay, a company four times its size, in a bid by CEO Ryan Cohen to build a rival to Amazon. The financing leans on $9.5bn of cash, a $20bn 'highly confident' letter from TD Bank, and roughly $20bn in newly issued GameStop stock - heavy dilution for a company worth under $11bn. GameStop shares fell 10% on the news while eBay rose 5%, and institutional holders of eBay have shown little appetite to swap their stock for GameStop paper. A board rejection could land within days.
Anthropic Eclipses OpenAI as the AI Crown Changes Hands
Anthropic has overtaken OpenAI as the market's preferred AI bet, reaching a $30bn revenue run rate against OpenAI's $25bn and a $1tn secondary-market valuation. Roughly 80% of Anthropic's revenue is enterprise versus 40% at OpenAI, and it expects to break even by 2028 while burning a fraction of its rival's cash. A Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI missed internal revenue and user targets wiped nearly $400bn from the market value of linked names including Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and SoftBank. The odds of OpenAI listing before Anthropic have collapsed from 75% to 31% since November.
Markets Shrug Off Iran War as Tech Earnings Power Rally
Global equities have ripped higher two months into the Iran conflict, with the S&P 500 up 8%, the Nasdaq up 12% and the Dow up 6% since the so-called ceasefire was announced. The rally has come despite Brent crude holding above $103 a barrel, US gasoline prices up 35% since the war began, and continued naval skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz. Tech-heavy markets have led the charge, with Taiwan up 15% and Israel up 9%, as AI-driven earnings estimates posted their largest upward revision on record.