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Anthropic Eclipses OpenAI as the AI Crown Changes Hands

By Oliver Benns

Anthropic has overtaken OpenAI as the market's preferred AI bet, reaching a $30bn revenue run rate against OpenAI's $25bn and a $1tn secondary-market valuation. Roughly 80% of Anthropic's revenue is enterprise versus 40% at OpenAI, and it expects to break even by 2028 while burning a fraction of its rival's cash. A Wall Street Journal report that OpenAI missed internal revenue and user targets wiped nearly $400bn from the market value of linked names including Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and SoftBank. The odds of OpenAI listing before Anthropic have collapsed from 75% to 31% since November.

Big Tech Earnings Reward Discipline, Punish Runaway Capex

Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Google and Apple all beat on revenue and profit, but reactions split sharply on spending plans. Google rose 9% and Apple nearly 5%, while Meta fell 9% and Microsoft 3% after raising 2026 capex guidance toward $200bn each. Meta drew the harshest treatment, growing revenue 33% to $56bn but lacking a cloud business to monetise the build-out, leaving its forward P/E at 20, the lowest of the group.

Musk-OpenAI Trial Opens With Sellers Regret on Display

Elon Musk's lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman, alleging breach of charitable trust and fraud over the shift from non-profit to for-profit, has reached court. Musk donated roughly $40m in the early years and signed away ownership and governance rights after pushing for an 80% for-profit stake himself. Filings also revealed xAI has been distilling OpenAI's models to train its own.

Spirit Airlines Collapse Tests Washington's Bailout Reflex

Spirit Airlines is winding down after two bankruptcies in two years, with operating margins set to slide from -7% to -20% as fuel costs spike. The Trump administration offered a $500m loan for 90% of the carrier before the deal fell through. Spirit holds just 3.4% of the US market and poses no systemic risk, raising questions about a pattern of federal equity stakes following earlier moves into Intel and US Steel.